Trump’s approval falls in NC, while Roy Cooper widens polling lead over GOP

Good morning! It’s Danielle Battaglia with the latest edition of Under the Dome, focused on the actions of the Trump administration.

The government has officially reopened. How much was North Carolina affected by the shutdown, and who do people blame? A new poll has some insight.

I’m not a fan of polls this early in an election cycle, but here I am bringing you the second one in two weeks (at least I’m self-aware).

But this poll stood out for me in part because it was done by Carolina Journal, which is published by the conservative think-tank the John Locke Foundation. And now you’re probably saying: Danielle, won’t this be slanted in favor of the Republicans? And that’s where the numbers fascinate me, because Carolina Journal didn’t have to release this poll (and for the record, the news outlet’s polling methods are considered by experts to be credible).

So let’s drill down into those numbers.

Carolina Journal, with Harper Polling, polled 600 North Carolinians between Nov. 9 and 10 to get their current views on President Donald Trump, the shutdown, the economy and the state of the Senate race, among other things.

I’m going to start with the latter, because of the impact it could have directly on the state.

North Carolina is a purple state known for electing Republican presidents at the same time as Democratic governors. We literally split tickets.

There are several people who have filed paperwork to run in both primaries, but most people are focused on the two biggest names in the races: former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.

In the poll, Cooper led Whatley by 8.7 points.

This is the third poll Carolina Journal has done since August. Cooper has held a lead each time, holding a similar 8.2 point lead in August, but only a 4.2 point lead in September. Similar results are being found by other pollsters.

Carolina Journal also polled Cooper against Whatley’s primary opponent, Don Brown, a veteran and attorney. Cooper still led but this time by 10 points.

Those polled were equally divided between Republican and Democratic respondents at 33%, with 27% independents. The rest were unsure or held other party affiliations.

When tested just with independent voters, Cooper’s lead widens to 16 points over both Republicans.

“Cooper’s lead continues to benefit from strong name recognition among voters,” Carolina Journal publisher Donald Bryson said in a news release. “If Whatley or Brown want to have a chance in this race, they will need to get in front of voters and raise their own public profile.”

Now let’s talk Trump.

Trump’s approval rating and shutdown

North Carolina supported Trump in all three of his past elections. But more than half (55.4%) of those polled believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction.

And the Carolina Journal poll shows that Trump’s approval rating is falling in North Carolina. Currently, 52.8% disapprove of the job Trump’s doing, up from 49% in September.

When it comes to the economy, 58.9% said they were not confident in it. A majority of those polled, 52.9%, said they were affected either by the federal government shutdown, the state’s failure to pass a budget, or both.

Carolina Journal asked who those polled blame for the shutdown. They were divided, with 38% blaming Democrats, 33.8% blaming Republicans and 24.7% blaming both parties.

More than half of North Carolinians say they believe imposing tariffs will hurt the national economy.

The poll drilled down into other topics, including state-level issues.

What else we’re working on

• Congress votes to end shutdown. NC Democrat breaks with party in vote for bill
• Health insurance costs spike for 2026. How much more will NC enrollees pay?
• Trump pardons NC’s Mark Meadows, Sidney Powell in fake electorate scheme
• Dan Bishop appointed interim US attorney for NC’s Middle District federal courts
• Will NC residents get $2K ‘tariff dividend’ checks? We asked an economist
• NC solar plant closing and cutting 220 jobs amid Trump policies, bankruptcy
• Toyota marks production launch at NC battery factory, surpasses 2,500 workers
• NC Gov. Josh Stein talks about possible Border Patrol plans for Charlotte
• NC elections board undergoes staffing shakeup following Republican takeover

Be kind to each other.

If you have any feedback or tips for this edition of the newsletter, feel free to reach out to me directly at dbattaglia@mcclatchydc.com.

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This story was originally published November 17, 2025 at 5:00 AM.

Danielle Battaglia

McClatchy DC

Danielle Battaglia is the congressional impact reporter for The News & Observer and The Charlotte Observer, leading coverage of the impact of North Carolina’s congressional delegation and the White House. Her career has spanned three North Carolina newsrooms where she has covered crime, courts and local, state and national politics. She has won two McClatchy President’s awards and numerous national and state awards for her work.